The Abstracts of Vol.3.2021
Releasing Time：05.18.2021Source：亚非发展研究所英文
The Global Strategic Retrenchment Period and A New Journey for China＇s Strong Country Diplomacy
Ling Shengli
The national strategic orientation presents two trends：strategic retrenchment or strategic expansion, which are mainly influenced by national strength and international environment. The global spread of COVID-19 has profoundly affected current international relations, which make the future world enter a strategic retrenchment period. There are two main bases for judging this. First, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is extremely obvious, resulting in the loss of the strength of great powers in the world. Second, the momentum for global governance has weakened, competition among great powers has intensified, and the international environment has become more competitive. As a result, the strategic focus of the future great powers will be domestic politics, and they will be more introverted and conservative in their foreign policies, which will greatly increase the probability of strategic contraction. Because of the systematic effects of the global retrenchment period, the competition among great powers continues to intensify, global governance is in deep trouble and the risk of global upheavals has increased. China＇s development has shifted from“getting rich”to“getting strong”. In the face of difficulties and adversity, China＇s diplomacy should adjust accordingly: be alert to the pitfalls of strategic temptation, avoid the risk of strategic overdraft and act prudently in major country diplomacy, peripheral diplomacy, developing country diplomacy and multilateral diplomacy.
The Changes on Preference and Methods in Establishing and Maintaining American Hegemony: from Adopting to Excluding
Liang Yabin
In order to successfully implement an international institutional arrangement, countries must consider the costs and benefits, so the preference for institutional establishment also plays a very important role. Although the Bretton Woods system, as a hegemonic system, represented the views of the American political elite on the post-war international order at that time, the strong isolationism at home and the resistance from other countries made it face the danger of failure again. In the process of this gaming, the American political elite carefully shaped the preferences of its people to get rid of the bondage of isolationism, and successfully made the Bretton Woods Agreement approved by the Congress, and adopted more countries into this system. Over the past 70 years, the voices of the decline of American hegemony have been heard constantly, and the relative decline of American power has become more and more obvious. The strategic competition between China and the United States in the Western Pacific region has intensified. The US policy towards China has been shifting from“adopting”China into the international system to“excluding”China.
The Contrast of Chinese and USSR Navy Strategies Under Sea Power Perspective
Yang Zhen
Since the history of international relation have entered the post-Cold War era, International Ocean Strategy Pattern (IOSP) have begun a dramatic and far-reaching change simultaneously. The axis of IOSP has moved from Atlantic to Pacific, during this processing China and US have become the main figures. As Chinese Navy strength developing rapidly, US regarded China as a new challenger to its maritime supremacy . Both as products of sea power thoughts, the post-Cold War Chinese Navy Strategy have fundamental differences with the Gorshkov version of USSR Navy Strategy on many perspectives, such as Geopolitical factors, the operational environment, the Navy functions, operational concepts. These differences between the two kinds of Navy strategies decided that the Sino-US sea power relationship would be competition-cooperation pattern but not the struggle of hegemony pattern between US-USSR.
Analysis on Taiwan＇s South China Sea Policy under United States Intervention
Wang Shushen
The United States is the most important external factor affecting the South China Sea issue.Since Obama administration pushed“Rebalance in Asia”policy, the SCS issue has increasingly become a focal point of Sino-US strategic competition. US government＇s policy of challenging China＇s sovereignty claims over the SCS has been more aggressive than ever, which reached a new high level in Trump administration. Due to the history of cross-Strait relations and some political reasons, Taiwan makes maritime claims in the South China Sea and is administering some islands and reefs, which reflect Taiwan＇s special role in the SCS issue. Under the circumstance of extreme competition between China and US, Ma Yingjiu and Cai Yingwen＇s policies of the SCS were different in many respects, which had made certain influence on mainland China＇s efforts of safeguarding maritime interests in the SCS. In the future, Taiwan＇s SCS policy will continue to be influenced by the US. Close attention should be paid to the complex trend of the South China Sea issue under the strategic game between China and the United States.
Sino-Russian Economic Relations: Status Quo, Characteristics and Balanced Development
Feng Yujun
In recent years, relations between China and Russia have warmed further, as both countries seek to reduce strategic pressure from the United States, gain new space for economic growth, improve the international environment they are facing, and promote the development of the world pattern and international order in the direction they want. It is of great significance to make an empirical analysis and objective summary of the current situation, characteristics and balanced development of China-Russia cooperation in the fields of trade, energy and investment in light of the macro-evolution of the international pattern and the world economy. In the face of profound changes unseen in a century, China-Russia relations can only be improved rather than damaged. It is necessary to accurately grasp the relationship between cost and benefit of China Russia economic relations, take maintaining and expanding China＇s national interests as the fundamental starting point and foothold of developing China Russia relations. China Russia relations should help creating a good surrounding and international environment, and providing more economic and strategic assistance for China＇s development.
Industrial Cooperation among China, Japan and the ROK under
the Framework of RCEP
Liu Wen
The integrated development of trade and investment between China, Japan and the ROK and RCEP member countries has laid a market foundation for the conclusion of the RCEP agreement. RCEP will reconstruct the regional industrial chain from many aspects: unified economic and trade rules and“soft obligations”will improve regional business environment for cooperation among China, Japan and the ROK in third party markets. However, further industrial cooperation among China, Japan and the ROK also faces many challenges: Industries of the three countries may face competition with one another in relevant markets; The restrictions of Japan and Korea on technology import and export have restricted the formation and upgrading of regional industrial chain; There are certain risks in trilateral cooperation in third-party markets; The American factor brings great uncertainty to the industrial cooperation between China, Japan and the ROK under the framework of RCEP. China, Japan and Republic of Korea should work together to fully exploit the institutional dividends brought by RCEP and, on the basis of RCEP, actively promote the early realization of the China-Japan-South Korea FTA of“RCEP+”so as to promote the development process of regional economic integration in Asia.
The 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the New Leadership and the Future Trend of China Vietnam relations
Cheng Hanping
In early 2021, the 13th National Congress of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam was held. The meeting elected a new Central Committee. Nguyen Phu Trong was reelected as general secretary, becoming the longest serving general secretary over the years. At the beginning of April, the 11th session of the 14th National Congress of Vietnam was held, and the national president, the Prime Minister of the government and the president of the National Congress were elected. So far, the“four carriages”of Vietnam＇s new leadership have been formed. This power pattern basically determines the continuity of Vietnam＇s internal and foreign affairs in the next five years. As the new Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam headed by Nguyen Phu Trong begins to perform its duties, China Vietnam relations will generally step into a basically stable pattern in the medium and long term in the next few years or even ten years：Inter party exchanges and cooperation will be strengthened; The inherent maritime differences between the two countries will also be effectively controlled. In particular, under the background of increasingly fierce competition between China and the United States, Vietnam will not choose sides.
The Global Strategic Retrenchment Period and A New Journey for China＇s Strong Country Diplomacy
Ling Shengli
The national strategic orientation presents two trends：strategic retrenchment or strategic expansion, which are mainly influenced by national strength and international environment. The global spread of COVID-19 has profoundly affected current international relations, which make the future world enter a strategic retrenchment period. There are two main bases for judging this. First, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is extremely obvious, resulting in the loss of the strength of great powers in the world. Second, the momentum for global governance has weakened, competition among great powers has intensified, and the international environment has become more competitive. As a result, the strategic focus of the future great powers will be domestic politics, and they will be more introverted and conservative in their foreign policies, which will greatly increase the probability of strategic contraction. Because of the systematic effects of the global retrenchment period, the competition among great powers continues to intensify, global governance is in deep trouble and the risk of global upheavals has increased. China＇s development has shifted from“getting rich”to“getting strong”. In the face of difficulties and adversity, China＇s diplomacy should adjust accordingly: be alert to the pitfalls of strategic temptation, avoid the risk of strategic overdraft and act prudently in major country diplomacy, peripheral diplomacy, developing country diplomacy and multilateral diplomacy.
The Changes on Preference and Methods in Establishing and Maintaining American Hegemony: from Adopting to Excluding
Liang Yabin
In order to successfully implement an international institutional arrangement, countries must consider the costs and benefits, so the preference for institutional establishment also plays a very important role. Although the Bretton Woods system, as a hegemonic system, represented the views of the American political elite on the post-war international order at that time, the strong isolationism at home and the resistance from other countries made it face the danger of failure again. In the process of this gaming, the American political elite carefully shaped the preferences of its people to get rid of the bondage of isolationism, and successfully made the Bretton Woods Agreement approved by the Congress, and adopted more countries into this system. Over the past 70 years, the voices of the decline of American hegemony have been heard constantly, and the relative decline of American power has become more and more obvious. The strategic competition between China and the United States in the Western Pacific region has intensified. The US policy towards China has been shifting from“adopting”China into the international system to“excluding”China.
The Contrast of Chinese and USSR Navy Strategies Under Sea Power Perspective
Yang Zhen
Since the history of international relation have entered the post-Cold War era, International Ocean Strategy Pattern (IOSP) have begun a dramatic and far-reaching change simultaneously. The axis of IOSP has moved from Atlantic to Pacific, during this processing China and US have become the main figures. As Chinese Navy strength developing rapidly, US regarded China as a new challenger to its maritime supremacy . Both as products of sea power thoughts, the post-Cold War Chinese Navy Strategy have fundamental differences with the Gorshkov version of USSR Navy Strategy on many perspectives, such as Geopolitical factors, the operational environment, the Navy functions, operational concepts. These differences between the two kinds of Navy strategies decided that the Sino-US sea power relationship would be competition-cooperation pattern but not the struggle of hegemony pattern between US-USSR.
Analysis on Taiwan＇s South China Sea Policy under United States Intervention
Wang Shushen
The United States is the most important external factor affecting the South China Sea issue.Since Obama administration pushed“Rebalance in Asia”policy, the SCS issue has increasingly become a focal point of Sino-US strategic competition. US government＇s policy of challenging China＇s sovereignty claims over the SCS has been more aggressive than ever, which reached a new high level in Trump administration. Due to the history of cross-Strait relations and some political reasons, Taiwan makes maritime claims in the South China Sea and is administering some islands and reefs, which reflect Taiwan＇s special role in the SCS issue. Under the circumstance of extreme competition between China and US, Ma Yingjiu and Cai Yingwen＇s policies of the SCS were different in many respects, which had made certain influence on mainland China＇s efforts of safeguarding maritime interests in the SCS. In the future, Taiwan＇s SCS policy will continue to be influenced by the US. Close attention should be paid to the complex trend of the South China Sea issue under the strategic game between China and the United States.
Sino-Russian Economic Relations: Status Quo, Characteristics and Balanced Development
Feng Yujun
In recent years, relations between China and Russia have warmed further, as both countries seek to reduce strategic pressure from the United States, gain new space for economic growth, improve the international environment they are facing, and promote the development of the world pattern and international order in the direction they want. It is of great significance to make an empirical analysis and objective summary of the current situation, characteristics and balanced development of China-Russia cooperation in the fields of trade, energy and investment in light of the macro-evolution of the international pattern and the world economy. In the face of profound changes unseen in a century, China-Russia relations can only be improved rather than damaged. It is necessary to accurately grasp the relationship between cost and benefit of China Russia economic relations, take maintaining and expanding China＇s national interests as the fundamental starting point and foothold of developing China Russia relations. China Russia relations should help creating a good surrounding and international environment, and providing more economic and strategic assistance for China＇s development.
Industrial Cooperation among China, Japan and the ROK under the Framework of RCEP
Liu Wen
The integrated development of trade and investment between China, Japan and the ROK and RCEP member countries has laid a market foundation for the conclusion of the RCEP agreement. RCEP will reconstruct the regional industrial chain from many aspects: unified economic and trade rules and“soft obligations”will improve regional business environment for cooperation among China, Japan and the ROK in third party markets. However, further industrial cooperation among China, Japan and the ROK also faces many challenges: Industries of the three countries may face competition with one another in relevant markets; The restrictions of Japan and Korea on technology import and export have restricted the formation and upgrading of regional industrial chain; There are certain risks in trilateral cooperation in third-party markets; The American factor brings great uncertainty to the industrial cooperation between China, Japan and the ROK under the framework of RCEP. China, Japan and Republic of Korea should work together to fully exploit the institutional dividends brought by RCEP and, on the basis of RCEP, actively promote the early realization of the China-Japan-South Korea FTA of“RCEP+”so as to promote the development process of regional economic integration in Asia.
The 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, the New Leadership and the Future Trend of China Vietnam relations
Cheng Hanping
In early 2021, the 13th National Congress of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam was held. The meeting elected a new Central Committee. Nguyen Phu Trong was reelected as general secretary, becoming the longest serving general secretary over the years. At the beginning of April, the 11th session of the 14th National Congress of Vietnam was held, and the national president, the Prime Minister of the government and the president of the National Congress were elected. So far, the“four carriages”of Vietnam＇s new leadership have been formed. This power pattern basically determines the continuity of Vietnam＇s internal and foreign affairs in the next five years. As the new Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam headed by Nguyen Phu Trong begins to perform its duties, China Vietnam relations will generally step into a basically stable pattern in the medium and long term in the next few years or even ten years：Inter party exchanges and cooperation will be strengthened; The inherent maritime differences between the two countries will also be effectively controlled. In particular, under the background of increasingly fierce competition between China and the United States, Vietnam will not choose sides.