The Abstracts of Vol.6,2020
Releasing Time：11.16.2020Source：亚非发展研究所英文
Global Maritime Multipolar Pattern and the Rise of the Chinese Navy
Hu Bo
Due to the comprehensive effect of military technology changes,global maritime issues and peaceful competition mode, the world maritime strategic pattern is moving towards multi-polarization, of which China is an important pole. The global maritime multi-polar pattern constitutes the general background and environment for the rise of Chinese Navy and its sea power. The degree, paradigm and path of the rise of Chinese Navy will also affect the connotation and characteristics of this multipolar pattern. Considering the necessity and feasibility comprehensively, it is advisable for China to pursue a certain strategical advantage in the near seas, maintain a powerful presence in the adjacent oceans, actively participate in global maritime governance in the global waters, and play an important role in the construction and shaping of the global maritime security order.
Does There Exist a New U.S. Strategic Consensus on China?
Ren Xiao
In recent years, a number of changes occurred to U.S.policies toward China, among which the most profound one appears to be U.S.strategic perception of China. Has a new consensus on U.S.strategy toward China rising? Different people have different viewpoints on this important question. Under the current historical conditions, a new round of China policy debate is going on in the U.S.with different views struggling with each other. In this sense, there isn＇t a China strategy consensus in the United States. However, during the debate a concurring proposition is emerging, which holds that the United States needs to get tough on an“aggressive”China, and a strategic competition with China has to be pursued. Also, American policy makers believe that Washington has to keep China down. Taking these into consideration, it can be argued that a new consensus on China policy has indeed emerged in the U.S.strategic community.
Constructing the Theoretical Systemof the Arctic View
Li Zhenfu
Due to the intensification of the melting of the Arctic sea ice and the increasingly fierce competition for Arctic rights and interests, the study of the Arctic issues has become a hotspot in various related disciplines and a new research area that urgently needs theoretical breakthroughs. In recent years, relevant scholars have actively participated in this autonomous research with major practical needs, reflecting the scholars＇attention to the Arctic issue and its future development trends. Based on the reality that the theoretical basis for research on the China＇s Arctic issues has not yet been formed, this paper puts forward the China＇s Arctic View, and defines its concept, that is, China＇s Arctic View refers to people at a certain historical stage have basic views and opinions on the relationship between the Arctic as a whole and the surrounding international environment from the perspective of China, and the relationship between a part of the Arctic and the surrounding international environment. On the basis of proposing concepts, this paper constructs the academic theory chain of the China＇s Arctic View, and puts forward its research scope, thinking principles, four core concepts, four basic theories and ten scientific questions. At the same time, the methodology and system of research on the Arctic issues derived from system theory are proposed.
A Study on the Legal Conflict and Potential Possibilities of Mineral Resources Regimes in the Antarctic Ocean within“Antarctic Treaty Area
He Liu
While“Antarctic Treaty System”bans any mineral resources exploitation by 2048, uncertainty of legal status of the Antarctic Ocean cause some problems such as whether UNCLOS can be applied to the Antarctic Ocean, and whether mineral resources in the Antarctic Ocean enjoy the legal status of“the principle of common heritage of the mankind”stipulated by the“area”of UNCLOS. This article argues that the“area”regime of UNCLOS and the Madrid protocol of the“Antarctic Treaty System”apply simultaneously to mineral resources exploitation in the Antarctic waters within the“Antarctic Treaty Area”. The legal conflict between the two regimes is still unresolved at the normative level. In practice, however, the international community＇s general consensus on Antarctica＇s status as a nature reserve makes it highly likely that mining will remain banned beyond 2048.
America＇s Attack in the South China Sea and China＇s Policy Choice
Zeng Yong
Another America＇s Attack in the South China Sea（SCS）launched great panic of hot war in the SCS, in which US clearly opposed China＇s dotted line, utilized military power and ideology to compete with China＇s dominant position of economics and trade in Southeast Asia. The Trump administration would make best use of extreme pressure by the means of hot war in the SCS in order to achieve economic interests and strategical goal to break the healthy relations between China and other ASEAN countries. If China would not manage the situation well, China would fall into the trap of arms race designed by US with ASEAN＇s opposition to China＇s power politics. So China might answer America＇s attack calmly, strengthen its relationship with Southeast Asia, continue to promote economic and social culture investment in Southeast Asia to oppose America＇s card of ideology, proceed the negotiation of Code of Conduct in SCS with greater attention to United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Otherwise, China may take adventurous actions about the problem of construction on islands and reefs in SCS to clarify doubts and enhance trust in order to weaken the tendency to America＇s strategic competition with China initiated eagerly by Chinabashers.
The Strategic Value of the Okinawa Bases and the Transformation of the U.S.-Japan Alliance
Gui Yongtao
The American military bases in Okinawa is a crucial pillar of the U.S.-Japan alliance and a strategic asset for the United States to maintain its military advantages in the Western Pacific. The scale, structure and roles of the U.S. forces based in Okinawa have endured significant changes in the past seventy years, but their strategic value has always been highly appreciated. The controversy over Okinawa bases centers on the U.S. Marine Corps, a large part of which is to be relocated to Guam and other places. Japan fears that such relocation could weaken American deterrence. In recent years the American global strategy focuses firstly on the War on Terror and then on greatpower competition, which leads to an emphasis on geographically distributed and smaller bases. Accordingly, the strategic value of the Okinawa bases and the labor division of the U.S.-Japan alliance have been undergoing profound changes. For now and the near future the United States is primarily concerned about the socalled missile threat posed by China. Whether America and Japan will deploy ballistic and cruise missiles on the Okinawa island to deter China is a question that can have grave consequences for regional security.
The Construction and Influence of Tsai Ingwen＇s“Taiwan Community”Split Discourse System
Zhong Houtao
As she cannot publicly declare“Taiwan Independence”, Tsai Ingwen proposes“Taiwan Community”to realize“internal independence”. Tsai＇s“Taiwan Community”discourse is more deceptive and more dangerous than Lee Tenghui＇s“Special StatetoState”discourse and Chen Shuibian＇s“one country on each side of the Taiwan Strait”discourse. With full power in hands, Tsai Ingwen administration will propaganda“Taiwan Community”discourse to make it a kind of“political correctness”, which undoubtedly will squeeze the room of the blue camp and the white camp in the island. By promoting“Taiwan Community”, Tsai will counter the“the Shared Community across Taiwan Strait”proposed by Mainland China. And this will lead to the greater conflict between the two sides and dig a trap for the Taiwan social administration after peaceful reunion of the two sides.
The Pace of Asia-Pacific Economic Integration：with the Centre of RCEP
Ping Liqun
The breakthrough of the RCEP negotiation in 2019 symbolizes that great success has been achieved by one of the ideas of economic integration in the AsiaPacific region, which is the developing path from“N‘ASEAN + 1(2)’FTA”to RCEP to AsiaPacific economic integration dominated by ASEAN. The signing of the RCEP will put an end of East Asia area＇s long standing imbalanced circumstance of‘mature production networks, close intraregional trades’and‘institutional agreement lacking of overall and economic cooperation’, and also transfers to the whole world a broad consensus that Asian countries insist on opposing trade protectionism, adhering to multilateralism and promoting economic integration. In the postepidemic era, with the principle of establishing the production networks transferring from‘efficiency’to‘efficiency on the premise of safety’, the institutional guarantee of the RCEP will therefore provide a more stable and predictable economic environment for the whole area, in order to reinforce the confidence of establishing production networks in the area, reduce transaction cost, raise the level of socialfare of the countries within the area and advance the progress of AsiaPacific economic integration.