The Abstracts of Vol.3,2020

Releasing Time：05.16.2020Source：亚非发展研究所英文

 Feng ZhaoKui

   The issue of modern Sino-Japanese relations originated in the second half of the 19th century. Japan seized the opportunity of the scientific and technological revolution while China missed it. The success or failure of China and Japan in learning advanced European technology and systems was the prelude to the modern history of Sino-Japanese relations. Japan used to learn from China in history, and after the Meiji Restoration and “departing from Asia for Europe”, it turned to learning from the West. After World War II, Japan seized the opportunity of the second scientific and technological revolution and became a world economic and technological power. Japan has taken one step ahead of China on major issues such as industrialization and technology introduction, rapid economic growth and economic slowdown, and aging of population. The fourth scientific and technological revolution is now emerging. China and Japan have their own strengths in science and technology,' and they can learn from each other. Since the outbreak of the COVID─19, China and Japan have looked out for each other, and it becomes a “new warm bag” to promote the recovery of bilateral relations. The future development of Sino-Japanese relations is likely to be synchronized with Japan's progress from “de-Asia” to “return to Asia”.

How Constituency Interests in China-U.S. Trade Influence Voting Behavior:

 Xie Tao and Zhang Chuanjie 

    No Chinese analyst to the authors' knowledge has empirically tested the effects of China's 2018 retaliatory tariff on soybean farmers' support for Trump or the Republican Party. Using county-level soybean production and election results, this study combines the most likely case and the least likely case to assess whether Chinese tariff reduced soybean farmers' support for Republican candidates in the 2018 House elections. Though Republican vote did decrease significantly, this study demonstrates that this decrease is not related to China's punitive tariffs on American soybeans.

 

Jia Yu 

    China used to be a coastal State of the Sea of Japan. The unequal treaties deprived China of the sea port of the Tumen River, but still retained right of navigation to the sea through the River. The Tumen River is a multi-national river. It is not only a boundary river between China and Democratic People's Republic of Korea（DPRK）, but also a boundary river between DPRK and Russian Federation. China enjoys the rights of navigation to the Sea of Japan through the Tumen River including the part between DPRK and Russia. The delimitation between China, DPRK and Russia does not affect China's rights. China is a country near the Sea of Japan and also a State of origin of anadromous stocks such as salmons. By contributing to the protection and conservation of the Stocks, China has undertaken the obligations. According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, China enjoys corresponding rights and interests in the Sea of Japan, especially the right of navigation such as innocent passage and the rights as a State of origin of anadromous stocks.

 

 

Zhang Jingquan 

    The effect of nuclear deterrence in Northeast Asia is weakening which has a negative impact on regional security. Although the investment in nuclear deterrence is going on, traditional capabilities and credibility of nuclear stopping and nuclear protection have decreased. Consequently, the trend of nuclear proliferation is growing and the paradox of nuclear deterrence appears. The weakening of nuclear deterrence effect in Northeast Asia is manifested as follows: the US continues to offer nuclear protection for South Korea and Japan; South Korea and Japan dream about owning nuclear weapons; and North Korea develops nuclear weapons. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and invalid Middle Range Guided Missile Treaty reduce China and Russia's nuclear deterrent abilities. One cause behind the deteriorating nuclear stopping ability, the shaky credibility of nuclear protection and the unstoppable nuclear proliferation is the incomplete nuclear safety protection and the increase of nuclear countries. This paper reflects on establishing a nuclear theory for the new era and studies the coexistence of nuclear weaponization and nuclear civilianization. The nuclear cooperation mechanism should start from civilian sector then move on to weapon area. Nuclear is an opportunity for cooperation, and the weakening of nuclear deterrence effect can be dealt by building a community with shared future among Northeast Asian countries and through promoting cooperation in nuclear culture education and nuclear protection drills at the individual and local level. 

 

Yang Zejun 

   Since Trump came into power, US government broke diplomatic practices between China and US lasting for years by issuing Acts regardless of One China Policy. It has played the Taiwan Card to its extreme. The Trump Administration obviously is trying to use Taiwan against China，in order to dominate the Sino-US power game and make trouble for China's development. This is no good for the US, it will not stop China from national reunification and rejuvenation, on the contrary it will escalate the situation in Taiwan Strait, which probably will lead to conflicts. There will be double risks of Taiwan's enormous economic loss and the cross-strait situation out of control. It will lead the US to a dilemma. The consequence will harm its national interests and global strategy, and will not fulfill its aim of playing Taiwan card in the first place. It may also help the rise of other powers challenging its dominance. The US may not be able to maximize its interests.

 

Li Jiacheng and Zhou Zicong 

   Since Trump took office, the relationship between the United States and North Korea has gone through three stages: the period of confrontation and crisis, the period of detente and honeymoon, and the period of stalemate. During the period of confrontation and crisis, the United States imposed Maximum Pressures on the DPRK such as economic sanctions and military pressure. During the period of detente and honeymoon, the United States adopted a policy of engagement policy with North Korea such as summit meeting and working─level consultations. During the period of stalemate, the United States adopted the policy of both negotiation and pressure. Nor does the COVID─19 outbreak offer a window of opportunity for improving relations between the United States and North Korea. US sanctions against the DPRK has not been relaxed throughout. Trump himself and his aides are very dissatisfied with the Obama administration's policy towards the DPRK. In order to master the dominant power in the geo─strategic competition in northeast Asia, they actively deal with the DPRK's rapidly advancing nuclear and missile technology. This has been the driving forces behind the Trump administration's policy towards North Korea. The Trump administration's policy towards the DPRK has promoted the denuclearization negotiation and the easing of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, but the denuclearization negotiation between the DPRK and the US is still stuck in obstruction.

 

Newsletter: Gu Quan: Land Powers and Maritime Balancing: The Naval Expansion of Germany,1888-1914 / Li Zhuo / inside back cover