The Abstracts of Vol.6,2019
Releasing Time：11.16.2019Source：亚非发展研究所英文
Great Changes in the World and the Study of National Security
Liu Jiangyong
The world is undergoing the greatest changes in a century. One of the characteristics of the world's major changes is that the security challenges faced by the countries are more complicated. The traditional security situation is still grim, and non-traditional security threats have risen remarkably. Sustainable security and sustainable development are becoming the two major concerns of countries around the world. The direction of the future international development will be “multiple integration”, that is, “the community of a Shared Future for Mankind”, instead of bipolar or multi-polar hegemony. Xi Jinping's national security thought has important guiding significance for the establishment of China's national security study The term “national security” was first coined in China. China's national security studyshould contribute to national security and human security in inheritance and innovation.
The “Profound Changes Unseen in a Century”Academic Debates and Strategic
Implications
Ling Shengli
At present, the academia has no shortage of arguments about the “Profound Changes Unseen in a Century”, which is manifested in the debates of its connotation, causes and influences. This also leads to the lack of accurate assessment of this grand judgment,as well as the ignorance of the reflow, repeatability and systemicity of various changes. Compared with the discussion of the “Profound Changes Unseen in a Century”, it is more important to pay attention to its strategic implications. Facing the complex influences of the “Profound Changes Unseen in a Century”, the deepening understanding of this judgment is based on its strategic implications that how China should respond to it and to ensure the realization of the “Chinese Dream”,the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and the “World Dream”, building a Community of a Shared Future for Mankind. China's strategic responses are mainly to maintain the continuing growth of China's strength and promote the effective transformation of China's strength into its international influence.
Review and prospect of China-ASEAN cooperation in the South China Sea:
based on rules construction
Wu Shicun and Chen Xiangmiao
Since the second half of 2016, practical and substantial maritime cooperation between China and ASEAN countries has made steady progress,with new progress and a new look. However, it still faces uncertainties such as competition for regional influence by major powers outside the region and domestic political struggle of theclaimants. With the accelerating progress of COC negotiation, it is expected to establish a new rule-based order in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN countries. Meanwhile, the continuous intensification of great power rivalry will make bilateral cooperation gradually fall into the vortex of geopolitical competition. It is wise for China and ASEAN countries to seize the opportunity of COC negotiation and establish an effective system of rules, norms and systems for cooperation in the South China Sea.
The South China Sea Issue: Analysis of the Fourth Representation of Deep-level Structural Strategic Contradiction between China and Japan
Cai Liang
The key of improving Sino-Japanese relations at this stage is how to build the bilateral relationship according to the requirements of the new era, while this does not mean that the two countries should ignore the existing sensitive and complicated structural contradictions. After Taiwan issue, history issue and Diaoyu Island issue, the Sino-Japanese conflicts in South China Sea have become the fourth performance of the deep-seated structural strategic contradictions between the two countries. The main reason of these problems is Japan's negative perception of China's rise, which in turn triggers targeted, offensive and provocative policies of Japan towards China. Japan's interference in the South China Sea has the features of “complex interest positioning, regional strategic linkage and multi-field and multi-leveled complementary policy implementation” As a response, China should adopt a general policy of “controlling the overall situation, struggling and cooperating whenappropriate”, and make specific responses to specific interventions.
The Need to Develop International Law of the Sea ---Seen from the Dispute between China and the United States on“Freedom of Navigation”
Zhang Wei
Since 2015, the dispute on“freedom of navigation at sea” has become the focus which may lead to Sino-US military friction and potential conflict. China and the United States have different interpretations concerning the relevant provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Since the end of the Second World War, the international environment, the form of war, and the development of weapons and equipment have all undergone tremendous changes and brought many new issues. But there is a lack of specialized international laws. Few provisions are clearly stated on the application of maritime military operations under the current international law and the law of the sea. Moreover, some of the bilateral or multilateral military treaties and rules that have emerged are not mandatory enough. All these reasons are prone to cause maritime military friction, conflict, and even possible war. It reflects the development needs of contemporary international law of the sea that includes both the development of the law of war and the law of armed conflict, the development of international sea law applicable to maritime military activities, and the direct establishment of relevant bilateral and multilateral maritime military operations law. In this field, the two powers, China and the United States, and the international community are expected to make a difference.
Policy Implements of “Indo-Pacific” Strategy in South Pacific：
Status, Dynamics and Prospects
Qin Sheng
As an important part of the “Indo-Pacific”region, the South Pacific is becoming the policy focus of “Indo-Pacific” strategy. The Pacific Ocean, Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean together constitute the “Indo-Arc” in the geographical sense. Compared with other regions, South Pacific has gained a great strategic position in the process of transforming from “Asia-Pacific” to “Indo-Pacific”. Due to the natural advantages of United States, Japan, Australia and India in the South Pacific, Pacific Island Countries have become an important direction for four countries to implement the “Indo-Pacific” strategy. Hedging the influence of “Belt and Road Initiative” is one of the important goals of “Indo-Pacific” strategy. The strengthening of the political, economic and military presence in South Pacific by United States, Japan, Australia and India will further intensify competition among the major powers in South Pacific and have an important impact on “21st Century Maritime Silk Road”. Confronted with “Indo-Pacific” strategy and China's “Belt and Road Initiative”, Pacific Island Countries are facing significant diplomatic choices.
The Rise, Development and Prospect of Islamic Extremism in South Asia
Niu Song
At the end of the 1970s, the rise of Islamic revival movement constituted the international background of the emergence and development of Islamic extremism in South Asia. In particular, the malignant development of South Asian Islamic extremism was deeply influenced by the Soviet-Afghan War, the Iranian Islamic revolution, and the United States' palliative global anti-terrorist policies, especially the failure of its Middle East and South Asian policies.The development of South Asian Islamic extremism is closely related to regional conflicts, state-building and ethnic separatism, while with typical characteristics of cross-borders and linkage. Some South Asian countries had strengthened regional cooperation so as to jointly combat Islamic extremism and adopted different strategies towards Islamic extremism and terrorism, which have made certain achievements in the Islamic extremist governance in South Asia, but still face many serious challenges.
A Study of Causes and Prospects of Japanese Conservatism's ‘Nuclear Theory’ against the Background of the Changing Situations in Northeastern Asia
Chen Youjun and Wang Kun
The “Three Non-nuclear Principles”, one of the basic limits of Japan's basic defense policy, have played a very important role in the stability of Japan's political situation. However, the Japanese conservatism always has the idea of modifying the nuclear-free policy and has challenged the nuclear-free bottom line frequently. The new century has witnessed that Japanese conservatist politicians and scholars talked about “owning nuclear weapons” in public, which accelerates the right deviation of Japan's politics. Against the background of the major changes in the Northeastern Asia, the conservatism has revived“North Korea threat theory”, doubted the reliability of American “Nuclear Umbrella”, and advocated the revision of the “three non-nuclear principles”, trying to reach to goal of “owning nuclear weapons”. The fact that Japan is facing is that although Japan has advanced nuclear technology application and development capabilities, it is still unable to break through the basic national policy of “three non-nuclear principles” in the short term, and it is impossible to own and manufacture nuclear weapons because of the constraints like domestic public opinion, international opinion and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, etc.