The Abstracts of Vol.4,2018
Releasing Time：07.16.2018Source：亚非发展研究所英文
An Analysis of the Characteristics of Japan＇s
Basic Ocean Plan and the Reflection
Yu Zhirong
In 2005,Japanadvocated the new maritime strategy of “building up the nation upon the sea”, and in April 2007, Basic Ocean Act was initiated as a specific measure to achieve the goal of this maritime strategy. The Act regulated that the government should launch a “Basic Ocean Plan” every five years. The plan is not only an effective measure to carry out the Act, but also a frame of integrated marine management and a guideline of implementation of Japanese oceanic policies. Since 2008,Japanhad launched three Basic Ocean Plans. There are some common parts among all the Plans, however each Plan has distinctive emphasis according to the new circumstances, changes and missions. The first and second Plan emphasized the fundamental work of integrated marine management, check out the area and the scope of the sea under the jurisdiction ofJapan, and the types and the quanties of marine resources contained in the jurisdictional area. The 3rd Plan underlined the maritime rights focusing on the guard and defense. It emphasized the extensive marine surveillance through the cooperation of police, joint force ofJapanand theU.S., and cooperation with the countries ofSoutheast Asia. It strengthened the capability of collecting and ananlyzing the marine real-time information. The introduction to the third Basic Ocean Plan indicated that the contradictions and disputes of maritime rights betweenChinaandJapanwould increase in the next five years, and might lead to possible conflicts between the two countries. Thus, it is important forChinato prepare herself in advance, to prevent unpredictable and undesirable actions.
A Preliminary Analysis of the Trump
Administration＇s Indo-Pacific Strategy
Chen Fangming
With the increasing complication of the international situation and power realignment, especially the rising ofChinaandIndia, the strategic importance ofIndiaand theIndian Oceanare gradually coming to the fore. In this context, “Indo-Pacific”, as a new geo-economic, political and strategic term, is widely used in the academic and political community inAustralia, theU.S.andIndia. Due to various facts it has been gradually developed by the Trump administration into “the Vision for the Indo-Pacific” first and then deepened it into the Indo-Pacific strategy. The author of this article has briefly traced out the development and main connotations of the Indo-Pacific strategy concept, and analyzed the primary motivation of the Trump administration＇s release of this strategy, the possible prospect and impact with its implementation.
Russia＇s South China Sea Policy and Its Impact on China
Li Youlong and Zuo Fengrong
Russiaplays an important role in the complexSouth China Seasituation. In order to cope with the intensification of the South China Sea issue, China needs to take full account of Russia＇s role. This paper analyzes Russia＇s long-standing activities in the South China Sea, as well as Russia＇s position on the South China Sea dispute and the South China Sea arbitration case. As the ocean power, Russia＇s South China Sea policy is mainly determined by its own interests, and Russia uses China to contend with the United States. Therefore, there are two aspects of its impacts onChina. On one hand,Russiasold weapons toVietnamand other countries, which is not conducive to the peaceful settlement of theSouth China Seaissue. On the other hand, Russia supported China＇s position in resolving the South China Sea dispute and held joint naval exercises with China, which is conducive to easing China＇s international pressure on the South China Sea issue. Russia＇s role is a factor that should not be ignored on the South China Sea, China needs to focus on its policy trends.
The Changes and Analysis of Natural and Man-made Landscape
in Nansha from the Perspective of British Navigation Archives
——discussing the inaccurate statement
of“TheSouth China SeaArbitration”
Guo Yuan
Since modern times, there had been records of the natural and man-made landscape inNanshaIslandsand Reefs inBritishSouthSeanavigation archives, and the contents of the records were also different for each survey or observation every few years. To a certain extent, this could reflect the overall changes of the archipelago＇s landscape, and the living conditions of the archipelago＇s main population, as well as the traces of the changes in the South China Sea in the archipelago. In the early days of the Cold War, when the British government studied the Nansha dispute and interpreted its navigation archives, there was some recognition that the Chinese government had two islands. However, in “The South China Sea Arbitration”, the Tribunal unilaterally interpreted and applied the British navigation archives and believed that the main islands of Nansha could not maintain human habitation and their own economic life, and thus denied them as island. For this reason, an in-depth analysis of these records of the changes in the natural and man-made landscape of the Nansha Islands is not only conducive to enriching the data basis of our historical rights, but also can effectively refute the Tribunal＇s many false arguments.
U.S. Logic of Strengthening Freedom of Navigation in
theSouth China Seaand Its Critical Analysis
Shi Qiufeng and Wang Chuanjian
Since 2010, theUnited Stateshas gradually increased its involvement in the dispute over theSouth China Sea. Its outstanding performance is to strengthen freedom of navigation in the South China Sea as the core, exerting pressure onChinathrough various means such as politics, economy, diplomacy, and military, and forcingChinato retreat from the position of theSouth China Seaissue. TheUnited Stateshas both its historical logic and its realistic considerations in strengthening freedom of navigation in theSouth China Sea. From a historical point of view, the United States＇ efforts to strengthen freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is the inevitable result of the continuation and development of the traditions of “Hamiltonism” and “Wilsonism” in its history. From a practical point of view, there are many realistic considerations including taking the influence of the US economic interests and security interests in the South China Sea area as the excuse and achieving the so-called freedom of navigation and order stability in the region and implementing a comprehensive maritime strategy that assure the United States strengthen freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. However, with the development of the contemporary international maritime system and the democratization of international relations, the historical logic and realistic logic of the United States＇ efforts to strengthen freedom of navigation in the South China Sea have become increasingly untenable.
Strategy＇s Ambiguity and Outlet for US to Defeat Islamic State
——Comments on “Defeating Islamic State-Selecting a
New Strategy forIraqandSyria”
Chen Ming and Wang Qiaobao
After “9.11”event, terrorism has been a serious threat to world＇s peace and stability. Emerging of the IS related with ethnic and religious contraction in Middle-east area, as well as the mess of international anti-terrorism actives. US is the initiator and dominant of defeating IS coalition. With the liberation ofMosuland Raqqa, IS would be utterly destroyed. However, terrorism threats didn＇t disappear. Then, international society＇s counter-terrorism will be going to the era of “after IS”. In “after IS”, “inner-line and out-line” strategy which was executed by IS in the world will bring into importance. However, US doesn＇t express clear strategy for utterly destroying IS offshoot in Iraq and Syria. On the base of experience of US ever defeating IS, Rand Corporation systematically combs the messes of US defeating IS, advances that legitimated stability strategy could eliminate completely IS root causes. Legitimated stability strategy advances that it is impractical to eliminate the terrorism, and that it must use the civil and organization＇s strong self-restraint to keep the nation＇s security; military is only a part of the strategy, the core is building an environment which is good for eliminating the terrorism. Compared with military strike and democracy reform, the strategy is more comprehensive and initiative. But the strategy only pays attention to the US＇s core interests and doesn＇t recognize the potential difficulties in Iraq and Syria which restrain its implementation and the dialectical relationship between US＇s interests and the stability of Iraq and Syria. The issue reveals the mess ofUSstrategy for defeating IS, as well as the outlet, which has theoretical and practical significance.
An Analysis on the Influence and Developmental Trend of
the “Islamic State” inSouth Asiain Post-IS Era
Wang Erfeng and Feng Huaixin
In 2014, IS＇s news of “building a nation” in the Middle East shocked the world. It captured a largeterritoryofIraqandSyriain a very short period of time and carried out extreme education in the occupied territories. It promotes and recruits jihadists to carry out terrorist activities on a global scale, aiming to establish a “Khalifa nation” including North Africa, West Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, and China＇s Xinjiang region. IS has already no longer been a terrorist organization in the traditional sense. The act of “building provinces” in the world has brought it closer to the political entity “state”. Since the end of 2016, as the multi-armed attack on IS continued, the territory under the control of the organization has shrunk sharply, and “jihad” elements fled from the base camp back to their home countries. In order to show its influence to the world, terrorist attacks have been carried out, causing a new round of panic around the world. This article mainly analyzes the emerging changes in the sphere of influence of the “Islamic State” and focuses on the analysis of the impact on South Asia, and then reveals the future developmental trend of “Islamic State” activities inSouth Asia.
An Analysis of Russia＇s Role and Policy in
Solving the North Korean Nuclear Issue
Jia Yifei
Since the UN Security Council passed resolutions No. 2375 and No. 2397 on sanctions againstNorth Koreain September and December of 2017 respectively,North Korea＇sinternational living environment remains very difficult.North Koreatook a series of active diplomatic measures and announced on April 21, 2018 that it stopped the nuclear weapons test and the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles. In April and June 2018, Kim Jong-un met with South Korean President Wen Jae-in and US President Trump respectively. TheKoreanPeninsulais entering the most historic change since the Korean War. In recent years, Russia＇s “turn to the East” has become increasingly prominent in foreign policy and has strengthened its diplomatic interaction with neighboring countries in Northeast Asia. In recent years,North Koreahas also gradually strengthened its cooperation withRussiain the political, military, and economic fields based on its own considerations. The future direction of relations betweenRussiaandNorth Koreawill have a direct impact on the stability of theEast Asiaregion and even the entire international situation.Russiais also committed to playing an important role in the DPRK nuclear issue and adopting proactive diplomatic measures in order to play a key role in thePeninsulaissue.