The Abstracts of Vol.5,2017
Releasing Time：09.19.2017Source：亚非发展研究所英文
An Analysis of the Status, Challenges and Prospects of
China-ASEAN Trade Relationship
Xu Bu and Zhang Bo
The trade relationship between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations （ASEAN） had experienced considerable developments since the two sides commenced their dialogue relations in 1991. The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area （FTA） in 2010 had boosted bilateral trade volume to a record high. Nevertheless, the bilateral trade relationship might also be hampered by some potential challenges like trade imbalance, non-tariff measures, trade conflicts, etc, if not dealt with properly. In this context,Chinaand ASEAN need to work closely and think creatively, in coming up with new ideas and pragmatic measures to further enhance bilateral trade relationship.
With common goals and shared value, a grander prospect of China and ASEAN trade relationship should be expected, especially against the backdrop of several significant national-level initiatives, namely the Belt and Road initiative, ASEAN Community Vision 2025, the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity （MPAC） 2025 and the influential on-going regional integration arrangements such as Upgrade of China-ASEAN FTA, Regional Comprehensive Economic Relationship （RCEP） and the like.
The Four-Party Talks under Great Power Concert
——A Tentative Discussion on a New Approach to
Security Institution Construction on theKoreanPeninsula
Wang Shoudu
Since the beginning of 2017, a series of incident occurring inside or outside the Korean Peninsula （say, the assassination of Kim Jong-nam, U.S-R.O.K joint military exercise, Tillerson’s visit to Northeast Asia, the deployment of THAAD and the swore-in of South Korea’s new president, Moon Jae-In ） have made the status quo even worse. On the other hand,North Koreanuclear issues have not been effectively settled since 1993, when the firstNorth Koreanuclear crisis broke out and the construction of regional institution did not achieve the expected result. Considering the necessity and feasibility of establishing a long-run and efficient security mechanism in Northeast Asia, this paper innovatively introducesChina’s rise and the return of a new bipolar system inNortheast Asiaas analytical framework and proposes an attempt at institution-building. Based on the concept of Sino-U.S condominium, such scenario proposes a new form of Four-Party Talks which includeChina, U.S and twoKoreas, aiming to alleviate the nuclear security dilemma on the Korean Peninsula.
The Geopolitical Game amongChina, US and
Indiafrom the Perspective of Indo-Pacific Concept
——Expression and Essence
Ji Cheng and Song Dexing
With the collective rise of Asian countries in the aspects of economy, politics and regional influence in the 21st century,ChinaandIndiabeing the representatives, practical geopolitical and geo-economic significance has been attached more than ever to the “Indo-Pacific” geopolitical concept. Regional powers such asChina, U. S andIndiaare inclined to take the Indian Ocean and thePacific Oceanas a united geo-strategic region, fit this idea to their national strategic programs and then, take it into practice in their foreign policies, hoping for a strategic ecology of coexistence of cooperation and competition among the Indo-Pacific regional powers. What is more, considering the unique geopolitical traits of the Indo-Pacific region, it is not easy for any single nation to maintain regional peace and stability by itself, nor to establish itself as the dominant regional power by providing public products. As a result, in order to maintain the Indo-Pacific marine security, it will be inevitable to build up a mixed regional marine security framework with a core security concept of coordination and cooperation among regional powers.
Academic Exploration and Practical Utility: the Routes
and Methods ofPacificIslandCountries Research
Tian Xiaohong
Great progress has been achieved on the research of pacific island countries inChina, yet problems also exist. The most prominent problem is how to deal with the relationship between academic study and application study. To talk over this issue, experts and scholars concentrating on this area attended an academic conference inLiaochengUniversity, and some basic consensus understanding is reached. Research of the pacific island countries inChinashould start from the application study, or in other words, from the needs of the reality, and researchers should mainly focus their attention on the academic study or the basic study, adapting current theories domestic and overseas and trying to make innovations. With progress of the academic research, the application of research will be improved hence.
An Analysis on the Relationship between
AKP and Gulen Movement
Li You and Han Jun
The failed coup attempt on 15 July2016 inTurkeywas the climax of a series of former confrontations between the two formerly-allied factions of ‘moderate’ political Islam—the Erdogan-AKP administration and the Fethullah Gulen’s Gulen Movement. The cooperation of two Islamic actors inTurkeyhas transformed the secularism state’s strict control of the religious field. The AKP did so through its “participation” in party politics, the Gulen Movement contributed to this transformation through its “non-participation” in party politics as a social movement. Once Erdogan eliminated the Kemalist ‘leviathan’, a conflict between he and Gulen occurred. These two movements, by following different political paths, have embodied different opportunities for and challenges to Turkish democratization. The development of their relationship, on one hand, has promoted Islamic resurgence and democratic transition; on the other hand, it has resulted in the AKP’s politics of hegemony, erosion of the rule of law, undermining of institutional checks and balances, the fall ofTurkeyas a model.
Turning Back of theSouth China Sea
Situation in the Post Arbitration Era
Yang Zejun
The turning back of South China Sea situation to normal routine is mainly due to thePhilippinesregime change and its following policy adjustment, Chinese powerful counterattack to the so-called South China Sea Arbitration lawsuit, and theUSnot being ready for a showdown withChinaon theSouth China Seaissues. Of course, the peace in South China Sea dispute is temporary, the structural contradictions between China and other South China Sea main claimants still exist in territorial sovereignty and marine rights and interests, and it’s not easy to solve properly.America’s will to maintain the dominant power and to containChinawill not stop, and it will not let the SCS dispute to go at that. Outside countries, likeJapan,AustraliaandIndiawill keep on fanning up the flames of trouble, intervening in SCS disputes, to hamper China. The South China Sea situation will keep stable relatively for the coming future, yet field battling will not stop, legal fighting will loom larger,Chinawill still face the joint coercive efforts of internal and external countries. There may be a normalization of Tri-Sea joint efforts of disputes in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Taiwan Strait, withSouth China Seadispute as the core. That may cause the normalization of collective response of US and other western countries, resulting in long time turmoil inSouth China Seawith continuing frictions to occur repeatedly.
On the Role of the Malaysian Chinese under the Belt and Road Initiative
Yang liyao, Yin Yong, Xi Wenjia and Xu Liang
Malaysiais an important node country along the “21st-CenturyMaritime Silk Road”. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations betweenChinaandMalaysiain 1974, exchanges in the political, economic and cultural fields have been continuously strengthened and cooperation has become increasingly close. Malaysian Chinese, as the second largest ethnic group ofMalaysia, plays an important role inMalaysia’s economic and social development process, and also actively participates in bilateral trade and cultural exchanges through official and private channels. On the basis of analyzing the social and economic status of Malaysian Chinese, their cultural identity and national identity, the paper raises that the Malaysian Chinese can play a better role in propelling the Belt and Road construction.
Discussion on the Law of Development of Modern Navy
Zhang Wei
The trend of the modernization of navy is of a characteristic of objective laws independent of people’s subjective will. Under the influence of these laws, the development of each country’s modernization of navy is sure to be based on certain theories or practical logics. This paper talks about the following five issues, they are the driving force of the sea power, competition and development, system building, leading of the theories, and internationalization of navy. In author’s opinion, the law is objective in itself, but the understanding and control of the law is subjective, it not only decides the direction of development and the way of application of each country’s modernization of navy, but also has an effect to a degree on the rise and fall of the country. So, the purpose of understanding and controlling laws is just to push the modernization of navy forward consciously, secure its development smoothly in a dynamic way and maximize its developing benefits based on the national conditions, and rational design of the naval strategy in terms of national interests.
Beyond Hegemony:China’s Deterrence-Based Sea Power
Lu Shengjun
This paper attempts to analyze the profound connotation of China’s sea power through comprehensive analysis, historical comparison and other research methods. The core and essence of China’s sea power is deterrence. Compared with the U.S global strategy, the Asia-Pacific is at the forefront of its eastern strategy, and China is the key point of its defense The most important goal of America’s containment of China is to keep China within its eastern line, and render it unable to transit into the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean through the East China Sea and the South China Sea. China’s sea power have always focused on peaceful strategic goals. In the context of the international cooperation ofOne Belt and One Road, the concept of “community of destiny” shaped byChina’s land and sea civilization is becoming increasingly popular. In the face of the western sea power of “seeking hegemony”, the “maritime harmony view” highlighted by the “maritime silk road” will undoubtedly become the mainstream thinking that leads the world and goes global.