The Abstracts of Vol.1,2017
Releasing Time：01.16.2017Source：
The Upcoming Trump Administration and Its
Challenges to the Asia-Pacific Regional Security
Zhu Feng
The Trump Administration will be taking office soon. Both the world and the Asia-Pacific region are mired in a rare sense of strategic insecurity. Given Mr. Trump’s mercurial rhetoric on anti-globalization, non-binding One-China policy, menace to launch trade war with China, and even asking for greatly increased nuclear arsenal in the U.S., quite few people will contend that he could present more consistency of the U.S. policies in the region. What will be Trump’s choice of Asian policy as well as China policy, and how his new choice would cost the region for its stability and prosperity? This paper primarily explores the Trump Impact to the region, likely emerging from his winning of presidential election in 2016 as the biggest “black swan”, and argues there would be some parallel between shift and continuity with regard to Mr. Trump’s Asian policy. The paper warns alarmingly that Both China and the U.S. should avoid the worst case scenario of high-intensity clashes between Beijing and Washington simultaneously at the fore of security and economy.
Exploring a Pragmatic Settlement
Regime for the SCS Dispute
Hong Nong
A peaceful solution to the South China dispute is the common interest of all disputant parties and other stakeholders. However, what is the most practical approach that fits well in the reality of the nature of the South China Sea dispute remains a question for debate. This paper suggests a five tiered model of maritime dispute management in a practical manner in the South China Sea, namely, cross-strait cooperation as a breakthrough for the China-Taiwan element in the South China Sea, environmental security as a driving force of cooperation in the South China Sea, fisheries cooperation as a start of the South China Sea disputes resolution, UNCLOS as a framework for ocean governance in the South China Sea, and lastly, transformation of ways of thinking as a foundation to lead policy and research direction.
Power and Order in the South China Sea:
A Strategic Framework for U.S. Policy
Dr. Patrick M. Cronin
Offered by the Center for a New American Security （CNAS） at the end of 2016, this policy brief reflects on power and order in and around the South China Sea. It parses four frames of reference relating to “blue” economy, military power, diplomatic competition, rules and architecture to help the American policymakers to understand the multidimensional interests at stake in the region, and also outlines the seven major issue areas affecting U.S.-China security and relations by the varying degrees of cooperation and competition. Through analysis, the policy brief suggests a comprehensive and long-term approach to managing US. interests in the South China Sea.
One World and the Solution to the South China Sea Issue
Zhu Wenquan
The solution to the South China Sea issue is a game of chess affecting the overall situation and influencing the future. We must make efforts to win the game by sticking to the following principles: firstly, we must do three things at the same time, that is, to hold one-on-one negotiations with the claimants, to strengthen dialogue and cooperation with ASEAN countries and to struggle with the outside powers; secondly, we must make progress in three different directions, that is, to guarantee the south route safe, to ensure the west route go smoothly and to open the north route; thirdly, we must stick to the theory of three periods, that is, the political period, the non-military struggle period and the war period; lastly, we must pay much attention to taking three measures simultaneously, that is, to lead the humankind to the direction of the one world, to eliminate wars by the way of winning the enemies without a fight, and to promote development by win-win cooperation.
The Dilemma of China’s Foreign Policy Transition:
An Analysis from “System-Unit” Perspective
Ye Xiaodi Yang Jialong
The debate appeared between Wu Jianmin and Hu Xijin in early 2016 again raises the discussion on the orientation of China’s foreign policy transformation.The reason behind the discussion is not only because there is no consensus in academic and political circles, but also due to the challenges occurred in the transformation process. Although the traditional wisdoms in Western International Relations Theory and the recent rise of Chinese IR School may be useful to explain the issue of foreign policy transformation, they both overemphasize the importance of “System Level”, thus leading to the less attention to the function of “Unit level”. Therefore, this article attempts to combine these two levels as “System-Unit”, a double structure analysis, and tries to propose that the “Conditional Assertive” strategy may be an effective approach to overcome the “transformation dilemma”.
A Future Prospect of Building the Cross-Straits
Mutual Trust Mechanism in Military Security
Li Anmin
Facing the severe maritime security situation, it is necessary for Taiwan and the mainland to work together to build the cross-straits mutual trust mechanism in military security in order to maintain territorial integrity of the Chinese nation.However, the weak political foundation, different needs of Taiwan and the mainland, lack of interior motivation and Taiwan’s interior factors are all hindering the building of the mechanism.Although the Chinese mainland is inclined to build the cross-straits mutual trust mechanism in military security, different parties in Taiwan hold different assertion and political views.In general, it is practical for both to carry out establishing the cross-straits mutual trust mechanism in military security step by step, which needs the cross-straits people’s deep concern and joint effort.
Vietnam’s Security Dilemma and Its Foreign Policy
Adjustment in the Post-Cold War Era
Li Chunxia
With the drastic change of the Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union,Vietnam fell into the security dilemma after the Cold War. It had been intensely debated in Vietnam that how to maintain the stability of the Communist regime, and how the public get free from the economic and social panic.Vietnam realized that the new era was focusing on peace and cooperation instead of conflict and confrontation.Thus, Vietnam established its “open and diversified” foreign policy with the goal of establishing more friendships.At the strategic level, Vietnam emphasized on the importance of geopolitics and sought for regional security in order to ensure national security.Vietnam established its ASEAN policy and eventually became a member of ASEAN. Diversified diplomacy and ASEAN membership have laid a solid foundation for the regime stability and the economic development of Vietnam, while national interests and regional cooperation have become a major line of Vietnamese diplomacy evolution.
Analyzing Economic Independence and Security
Concern in Sino-ASEAN Relations from “Limited
Accommodation Theory” Perspective
Zhang Zixiao
China-ASEAN relations have experienced 25 years of formal contacts, which established close economic relations and great trade achievements, but there are lots of uncertain factors and uncompleted strategic demands.In recent years the expanding power gap and the outside power’s intervention in the South China Sea dispute make China-ASEAN relations develop slowly in high-politic and cause the security worry.This paper analyzes why ASEAN relies on China in the economy and relies on US in the security business by accommodation theory, especially why China can’t get material accommodation in security business from ASEAN while it gets active accommodation in the economy.Physical security, identity security, and domestic political imperatives are three dimensions to explain how the economic accommodation realizes and how historical disputes, geographical basis and the South China Sea disputes affect security accommodation negatively, which is a limited accommodation.Since reform and opening up, China has promoted the cooperation with ASEAN cautiously and kept a low profile, which makes ASEAN trust and accommodate China’s economic demands. But as power rising, China’s behavior radicalization intensified the aggressive image in ASEAN perception.With outside powers and the geopolitics risks in Asia-Pacific, China should insist on strategy prudence to pursue the accommodation for great power status.